Thursday, October 15, 2009

2009 season final difficulty ratings

Since there seems to be a lull in the HBP action this offseason, here's a look at the final standings in difficulty ratings for various stats for the 2009 season. Difficulty ratings are explained here or here. Maybe.

HBPs
Chase Utley got hit by a lot of pitches, but he didn't do it by stocking up on plunks against pitchers who throw them in excessive numbers. In fact, the pitchers who plunked Utley where, as a group, right on the major league average in plunks thrown per batter faced. Kelly Shoppach, on the other hand, got a lot of relatively cheap and easy plunks, being hit by pitchers who just hit a lot of batters. By difficulty rating, Shoppach's 19 plunks were only equivalent to 13.8 plunks against average pitchers. Kevin Youkilis and Jason Kendall, on the other hand, got some style points by being hit by guys who don't throw a lot of plunks, so they would have each needed another 2 plunks to equal their difficulty scores if they only got hit by average pitchers.

PlayerHBPDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Chase Utley242819117.4
Jason Kendall172305135.6
Kevin Youkilis162127133
Carlos Quentin152078138.5
Shin-Soo Choo171945114.4
Ryan Braun131796138.2
Andre Ethier131656127.4
Brandon Inge17165597.3
Kelly Shoppach18162090
Kevin Kouzmanoff111514137.6
Josh Willingham121373114.4
Chris Iannetta111352122.9
Russell Martin111288117.1
Aaron Rowand14128291.5
Hanley Ramirez91247138.5
Marlon Byrd101230123
Ryan Garko101221122.1
Matt Diaz13121793.6
Milton Bradley111181107.4


Hit batters
Just like it's easier to get hit by Dave Bush than is to get hit by Andy Pettitte, it's much easier to plunk Brandon Inge than it is to plunk Chone Figgins, so we can apply the same theory to the pitchers and rank their Hit Batter totals by difficulty rating. Dave Bush may have hit the most batters, but Joba Chamberlain did the best job hitting batters who don't get hit very often. Tim Stauffer really went for the difficulty ratings, coming in fourth with only 5 plunks thrown - he was the only pitcher to hit Rafael Furcal in 680 plate appearances, and the only pitcher to plunk Dexter Fowler in 518 plate appearances.

PlayerHit Batters
Difficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Joba Chamberlain121846153.8
Chad Gaudin81768221
David Bush151756117.1
Tim Stauffer51461292.2
Kevin Millwood111453132.1
Jeff Suppan111380125.5
A.J. Burnett101336133.6
Edgar Gonzalez61329221.5
Johnny Cueto14132294.4
Brian Bass51297259.4
Vicente Padilla81255156.8
Rich Harden61236206
Fausto Carmona81232154
Scott Feldman91184131.6
John Lackey91171130.1
Jorge De La Rosa91158128.6
Chris Perez61041173.4
Ervin Santana101027102.7
Jamie Moyer101007100.7


Home Runs
These are the players who were the best at hitting a lot of home runs, and hitting them against pitchers who give up relatively few home runs. Miguel Cabrera hit 34 homers, but didn't make the list because he's rated as the most guilty of pumping up his home run totals against pitchers who give up a lot of longballs. His 34 real life homers had a difficulty rating equal to just 28 homers against average pitching.

PlayerHRDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Mark Reynolds44199145.3
Prince Fielder46189741.2
Ryan Howard45181440.3
Albert Pujols47167135.5
Adrian Gonzalez40144636.1
Adam Dunn38144438
Kendry Morales34138440.7
Jayson Werth36138338.4
Ryan Zimmerman33135641.1
Raul Ibanez34135239.8



Home Runs Allowed
These are the pitchers who gave up the most homers to guys who are not normally what you'd consider homer run threats. Braden Looper tops the list mostly on sheer volume, but Jonathon Sanchez comes in second thanks largely to being the only pitcher to give up a homer to Luis Castillo in 580 plate appearances. That's... probably not good.
PlayerHRDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Braden Looper39178245.7
Jonathan Sanchez19157682.9
Bronson Arroyo31139044.8
Derek Holland26136052.3
Jeremy Guthrie35132237.8
Kevin Millwood26122647.2
Johnny Cueto24120650.2
Chris Volstad29118740.9
John Danks28115641.3
Luke Hochevar23108847.3


Strikouts (pitchers)
Overall, batters struck out once every 5.6 plate appearances so you can see that the batters struck out by Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum were pretty close to average on the difficulty rating. CC Sabathia is the standout of the group since his 197 strikeouts would have been equivalent to 215 strikouts against average batters.
PlayerKDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Justin Verlander26915305.7
Tim Lincecum26114425.5
Zack Greinke24213945.8
Jon Lester22513275.9
Javier Vazquez23812945.4
Felix Hernandez21712735.9
Dan Haren22312185.5
C.C. Sabathia19712006.1
Josh Beckett19911946
Adam Wainwright21211725.5


Strikeouts (batters)
Mark Reynolds strike out with ridiculous frequency, but a lot of those strikeouts were against pitchers who strike out lots of batters. His 223 strikeouts only had a difficulty rating equal to 213 strikeouts against average pitchers. Of course 213 strikeouts is still awful, just not as bad as 223. Good thing he hits a lot of homers.

PlayerKDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Mark Reynolds22311915.3
Jack Cust18510715.8
Ryan Howard18610375.6
Adam Dunn1779715.5
Brandon Inge1709495.6
Jason Bay1629385.8
Carlos Pena1639095.6
Russell Branyan1498635.8
Mike Cameron1568495.4
Chris Davis1508445.6




Walks (not including intentional walks)
Chone Figgins appears to be a big fan of inflating his walk total against pitchers who throw a lot of walks. Maybe his new "patience at the plate" the TBS announcers have been talking about is really just a better understanding of which pitchers give up a lot of walks, and therefor are the ones you should swing less against. Anyway, walks were handed out to about 1 in every 12.1 batters, so Figgins' 101 walks were equivalent in difficulty to about 97 walks against average pitchers.
PlayerBBDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Adam Dunn100130313
Adrian Gonzalez97122112.6
Nick Johnson95120412.7
Chone Figgins101118111.7
Nick Swisher95114912.1
Marco Scutaro90112612.5
Kosuke Fukudome90111012.3
Jason Bay90109712.2
Jack Cust88109612.5
Lance Berkman83106812.9



Walks Allowed (not including intentional walks)
Here are the guys who walked the most batters who don't get issued a lot of walks. Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw really went out of his way to walk some guys that no one else wanted to walk - he was the only pitcher to walk Adam Wainwright this year, as well as the only pitcher to walk Jason Hammel - and he did that twice.
PlayerBBDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Doug Davis102123812.1
Clayton Kershaw87117713.5
A.J. Burnett97115611.9
Yovani Gallardo89105911.9
Jorge De La Rosa80104013
Jonathan Sanchez8399412
Ubaldo Jimenez7998312.4
Chad Billingsley7997712.4
Ian Snell8097712.2
Jason Marquis7496513



Sacrifice Flies
Sacrifice Flying is largely a lost art... or a never found art. But Casey Blake sacrificed in the most fly manner this year, accumulating a difficulty score equivalent to 12.7 sac flies against average pitching in only 10 Sacrifice Flies. Adrian Gonzalez also hit some impressively unlikely sacrifice flies, including the only one allowed this year by Paul Maholm (836 total batters faced), and the only one allowed by Charlie Morton (416 batters faced).
PlayerSFDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Casey Blake101738173.8
Bengie Molina111580143.7
Garret Anderson91503167
Adrian Gonzalez41473368.3
Ryan Zimmerman91347149.7
Jeff Francoeur91299144.3
Todd Helton101232123.2
Randy Winn81207150.9
Bobby Abreu91181131.2
Fernando Tatis41179294.8


Sacrifice Flies Allowed
Grady Sizemore was nearly shut out in the Sac Fly column in 2009, in 503 plate appearance, but Armando Galarraga gave one up to him. Nobody else did. Jeremy Guthrie gave up Johnny Damon's only sac fly in 626 plate appearances. (By the way, sacrifice flies occured 7.8% more often at this season's yankee stadium than they did at last season's yankee stadium, so not every ball flies out of the new park. Although, the increase in sac flies may be due to more batters thinking that every fly ball will be a homer due to the April hype, and swinging for the fences more often)

PlayerSFDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Armando Galarraga111566142.4
Jeremy Guthrie81517189.7
Chad Billingsley111499136.3
Chad Gaudin81429178.7
Livan Hernandez101401140.1
Zach Duke101254125.4
Brian Bannister101227122.7
Felix Hernandez111166106
Jason Marquis101138113.8
Brian Tallet71113159



Hits
Hits occured about once every 4.3 plate appearances in 2009, so most of these guys faced pitchers who were really close to the league average. (There just isn't that much variance from pitcher to pitcher in hits allowed per plate appearance, compared to something like HBPs per plate appearance). But, it looks like Robinson Cano found a few extra hits against weak pitching to put him over the 200 hits mark. His total difficulty score for his 204 hits was equivalent to just 195 hits against average pitching.
PlayerHDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Ichiro Suzuki2259704.3
Derek Jeter2128954.2
Miguel Tejada1998814.4
Ryan Braun2038774.3
Miguel Cabrera1988454.3
Robinson Cano2048404.1
Aaron Hill1958364.3
Hanley Ramirez1978314.2
Felipe Lopez1878234.4
Joe Mauer1918204.3


Hits Allowed
This would be the list of pitchers who gave up the most hits to batters who did get a lot of hits, but most of these pitchers faced groups of batters who were just about average. James Shields is down the list somewhat from his total hit rank, because he gave up more hits against batters who are easy to give up hits to.
PlayerHDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Cliff Lee24510574.3
Nick Blackburn24010234.3
Jon Garland22510084.5
Derek Lowe2329984.3
Braden Looper2269974.4
James Shields2399924.2
Zach Duke2319924.3
Roy Halladay2349914.2
Carl Pavano2359884.2
Jason Marquis2189644.4



Foul Balls Hit
Once again, there just isn't that much variation among foul ball rates for pitchers.
PlayerfoulsDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Brian Roberts57432465.7
Andre Ethier53830905.7
Pablo Sandoval52930105.7
Todd Helton53130085.7
Carl Crawford52629515.6
Ryan Howard50329155.8
Jose Lopez51229065.7
Jayson Werth50829035.7
Ichiro Suzuki50728835.7
Aaron Hill50428815.7


Foul Balls Allowed
Sure, why not.
PlayerFoulsDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Justin Verlander86048845.7
Scott Baker80545235.6
Cliff Lee75842695.6
Randy Wolf70139735.7
Edwin Jackson68038745.7
Matt Cain67338605.7
Roy Halladay65237415.7
C.C. Sabathia65537235.7
Matt Garza63436775.8
Jon Lester64636765.7


Missed Swings
These are the batters who swung and missed the most against pitchers who don't cause that many swinging strikes (not to be confused with actual strikeouts - these are just swinging strikes, with difficulty based on swinging strikes per pitch). Whiffs occured about once every 11.8 pitches, so Mark Reynolds swung and missed 478 times against a group of pitchers who caused slightly more swings and misses than average. Russel Branyon, Jack Cust and Miguel Olivo did more swinging and missing against pitchers who don't make a lot of batters miss.
PlayerWhiffsDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Mark Reynolds478554211.6
Ryan Howard446530011.9
Russell Branyan337420112.5
Carlos Pena346417912.1
Jack Cust316396412.5
Brad Hawpe324396212.2
Miguel Olivo312388512.5
Chris Davis315372711.8
Brandon Inge308359511.7
Shin-Soo Choo298354811.9


Whiffs Caused
Justin Verlander caused 442 missed swings, and those batters he caused to swing and miss averaged a whiff every 12.3 pitches - which means they whiffed less often then the league average which is 1 miss per 11.8 pitches. But he also caused the most overall swings and misses, before applying the difficulty score. CC Sabathia was especially good at getting batters who don't miss the ball often to miss against him. His 391 whiffs caused had a difficulty equal to 420 swinging strikes against average batters.

PlayerWhiffsDifficulty RatingAverage Difficulty
Justin Verlander442543412.3
C.C. Sabathia391497112.7
Javier Vazquez410474711.6
Rich Harden372454912.2
Tim Lincecum371445712
Felix Hernandez383442211.5
Jon Lester364435612
Cole Hamels364434211.9
Dan Haren365432011.8
Zack Greinke344416112.1


So, this information will probably help you when you least expect it. Better print it out and carry it around in your pocket.

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