Friday, June 5, 2009

MLB standings - in games with an HBP

Here's how the MLB standings would look, as of today, if they only counted games in which a team got plunked at least once. Because really, if your team didn't get hit by a pitch, should the game count?

NATIONAL LEAGUE


EAST
W
L
PCTHBP
Atlanta112.84618
Philadelphia174.81028
NY Mets75.58314
Florida68.42917
Washington410.28622
CENTRAL




Pittsburgh126.66721
Cincinnati126.66721
Milwaukee148.63628
St. Louis99.50023
Houston66.50015
Chicago Cubs89.47121
WEST




LA Dodgers104.71419
San Francisco108.55621
San Diego78.46717
Arizona57.41714
Colorado48.33313





AMERICAN LEAGUE



EAST
W
L
PCT
HBP
Tampa Bay93.75015
Boston177.70830
Toronto73.70012
Baltimore97.56316
NY Yankees88.50019
CENTRAL




Minnesota96.60019
Detroit66.50016
Kansas City66.50018
Chicago Sox79.43820
Cleveland1216.42939
WEST




LA Angels54.5569
Texas65.54512
Oakland68.42916
Seattle48.33312


The Atlanta Braves have only been hit by pitches in 13 games, but they're 11-2 in games when they're plunked - that a win pct of .846, compared to their .385 win rate in games when they don't get plunked. The Braves have the biggest such difference in the league. Did the Braves know this when they acquired Nate McLouth, who's been hit by a respectable 4 pitches this season? The Pirates were 4-0 in games when McLouth got plunked. The Phillies, Rays and Red Sox are all under .500 when they don't get hit by any pitches, but win over 70% of games in which they get plunked. The Red Sox are 6-0 when they get hit twice in a game. The Pirates have an NL Central Division leading win pct of .667 when they get hit by a pitch, but they're dead last in the Central when they don't get hit, at a dismal .382 win pct.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are a few teams that get worse when they get hit by pitches. Seattle wins 52.4% of their games when they don't get plunked, but only one third (.333) when they get hit. If you want to beat the Mariners, it would seem that throwing inside a few times might help. The team with the next most negative impact on wins from HBPs is the Yankees. They've won at a .632 clip when they don't get hit, but drop to an even .500 when they get hit by at least one pitch. So, opposing teams should think about the benefits of hitting Yankees batters, which include a greater chance of winning, and a decent chance that AJ Burnett will get mad, throw at someone, and get suspended. Again. However, the Yankees are 2-1 when they get hit twice in a game, so the winning strategy is to only plunk them once. But maybe as an experiment, someone should try hitting them 7 or 8 times. If you want to get specific, the Yankees are 0-2 when Derek Jeter gets hit by a pitch, and 0-3 when Hideki Matsui gets plunked. (The author of this website does not support or endorse intentionally plunking batters, but will still point out when it could possibly help a team win.)
The Nationals are 0-6 in games when they get hit by two pitches, but there are plenty of other ways to beat the Nationals without having to resort to that strategy.

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