Twins Spring Preview
Let's just say, based on last year's performance in the HBP categories, the 2009 Minnesota Twins have room for improvement. They finished dead last in both getting hit by pitches (36 in 2008) and hitting opposing batters with pitches (just 31).
On the pitching side, it's probably going to be more of the same in 2009. The Twins organization preaches command and control and control and command and control. Oh, and command. Any interview with anyone involved with the Twins pitching staff at any level of their organization will involve the words "command" and "control" more times than the total number of batters the Twins are likely to plunk this year. They threw the fewest balls per pitch, and per batter faced in the majors last year, so it's no surprise that they're not hitting anyone. Stephen Colbert would not approve of their ball ratios. The Twins entire spring training roster has only hit a career total of 112 batters - that's not even enough to bring down David Eckstein (he's been hit 125 times, and he's still going). However, it should be noted that opposing batters should not just sit back and assume that the Twins CAN'T hit them with pitches. Given their ability to hit the strike zone as often as they do, they ought to be really good at hitting a batter if they wanted to. In fact, remember those gulf war bomb camera videos where the smart bombs would fly in through a 4th floor window, take the escalator down to the basement, give the secret password, sneak in through the door to the underground bunker, and then explode? Think of that with a baseball and a batter.
On the batting side, though, the Twins really could get hit by some more pitches. A lot of websites might just point that out, and mock the Twins inability to get hit by pitches, and maybe post a picture of the Twins not getting hit by a pitch with the word "FAIL" in big letters, or a kitten in a Twins uniform with a caption that says "I canz not get hit by pitchez?", but this site is meant to be a little more helpful than that. So, here are a few ways the Twins batters can get hit by some more pitches, and maybe even get out of last place in the HBP category.
- Give Joe Crede lots of playing time at third base - Crede isn't going to lead the league in HBPs, but in seasons when he plays over 130 games, he averages close to 8 plunks. He hasn't had one of those seasons in a couple of years, and maybe getting hit by pitches isn't the best way to stay healthy, but the 2008 Twins got a total of 1 HBP from guys playing third base. That wasn't only 2nd to last in the league, but only because the Phillies 3rd basemen didn't get hit by any pitches at all. 2nd to last is really the best you can hope for when you get hit by 1 pitch, so Crede should be an upgrade.
- Give Carlos Gomez more playing time in the leadoff spot - This might be counter-intuitive, since Gomez got hit once per 63.3 plate appearances in the 9th spot in the order, and only once per 103.75 plate appearances batting 1st. But, Gomez tied for the team lead in HBPs, and the leadoff spot was the only spot in the batting order where the twins cracked the top 10 in the league HBP rankings. They need a guy who can get hit by some pitches leading off the batting order, setting the tone for the rest of the team.
- Be a little more patient at the plate - The Twins were 22nd in the Majors in pitches per plate appearance. Guys like Kevin Youkilis and Jason Giambi get hit by a lot of pitches because they stand around and watch a lot of pitches. If you wait around for a few pitches, maybe you can give the pitcher a chance to make a mistake that gives you a free base.
- Less Joe Mauer, more Mike Redmond - This one could cause civil unrest in Minnesota, but the Twins were dead last in HBPs recorded by catchers last year. Redmond and Mauer each got plunked just once, but at least Redmond has been hit 52 times in his career. Mauer's got a career total of 7. Carlos Quentin got hit in 6 consecutive games last year, but Mauer has only been plunked 7 times in 561 career games. Obviously, you can't put a number on the value Joe Mauer brings to his team when he's in the lineup and handling the pitching staff from behind the plate - but that's exactly the problem! Do you want to go along with the thing you can't put a number on but seems pretty good, or do you want to follow the easily proven stats that the Twins had a .594 win percentage when they got hit by at least one pitch, and only a .527 win percentage when they didn't. They were 1-0 when Mauer got hit by a pitch, so if he'd just take a few more for the team that would solve the problem, but if he can't do it, they should go with the guy who's been hit more than 7 times in the majors.
- Move Delmon Young to DH - Designated Hitter was another problem area for the Twins, in the HBP category, which is sad for a position once held by Don Baylor. The came in 14th in the majors in HBPs by DHs, which is also known as dead last among teams that actually use the DH. Delmon Young tied for the team lead in HBPs last year with 7, so he might be the man to step into the DH role and get hit by some pitches. The Twins Designated Hitters only got plunked twice last year, and neither of those plunks involved Jason Kubel. Kubel got most of the DH plate appearances last year, and looks to be the Twins DH for 2009
- Sign Luis Matos to play outfield - He's a non-roster invitee in the Twins training camp, but he got hit 7 times in the winter leagues this past offseason - and that's showing more potential than most of the team.
- Stand closer to the plate, and stop ducking out of the way - You really just should have thought of this on your own.
- Face more pitchers who hit a lot of batters - This is really just a trick of the schedule, but only 34.7% of the Twins plate appearances in 2008 were against pitchers who hit a batter more often than once per 100 batters faced. That's only 19th in the majors in that stat - the Yankees faced a pitcher who hit at least one in every 100 batters in 43.2% of their plate appearances. Perhaps this year's Interleague schedule against the NL Central can help with that
- Be more like the Indians - that's not exactly conventional wisdom in baseball, but the Indians got hit by 103 pitches last year, setting a new modern record. Learning from their example couldn't hurt. (okay, poor choice of words there). Also, maybe if you watch the Indians too closely they'll take it the wrong way and have their pitchers throw a couple of brush-back pitches.
Hopefully these suggestions will find their way to the Twins and they can have a more successful 2009. Good luck Twins.


3 Comments:
Excellent analysis.
I expect the new open-air Twins stadium, set to open here in Minneapolis in 2010 (next year!) will help things immeasurably. Their current ballpark (if you can call it that) is a plunkless desert wasteland.
In addition to the wind factor, which might help make the pitches more erratic than the indoor environment, the September and October games might cause some numb pitching fingers. Depending on the weather, this could yield a rich harvest of plunkings.
Also, the Twins just signed a knuckleballer, R.A. Dickey. I'm not sure what his plunking stats are, but if he can dish out a few, there might be some retaliatory plunks in the offing!
Thanks Corey.
R.A. Dickey has hit 13 batters in his career, which isn't that many, but it still puts him third among pitchers the Twins have in camp. Only Joe Nathan (14) and Luis Ayala (21) have hit more batters than that.
Dickey could definitely plunk some batters if he gets enough work, since nobody bothers getting out of the way of knuckleballs.
A knuckleballer seems like a strange fit for the Twins though, so I was guessing he wouldn't make the roster.
You're right, he's not a Twins-type control pitcher and probably won't make the team. I just have a soft spot for the lost art of the knuckleball. You never know.
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