Friday, September 12, 2008

the right time and the wrong time to get hit by a pitch

Getting hit by a pitch will usually help your team, if you can do it without getting seriously injured, and without the umpire deciding not to award you first base for some perceived lack of effort to avoid the pitch. But, it seems that getting hit in certain innings is more effective for helping your team win.

Overall, teams that get hit by a pitch at least once in a game have won those games 57% of the time this season. But, teams that get hit in the 8th inning have won 61.4% of games, while teams that get hit in the 9th inning have won just 46.3% of games. Teams that get hit by a pitch in the 10th or 11th inning win their game 71.4% of the time, but the overall win rate for teams that get plunked in extra innings is just 53.8%, because teams that get plunked in the 12th inning or later have just 4 wins against 8 loses.

Here's the chart of win-loss records, by inning with a plunk:
inningW-Lwin pct
198-690.587
2105-740.587
387-600.592
484-680.553
591-730.555
6114-780.594
798-630.609
897-610.614
950-580.463
105-20.714
115-20.714
122-40.333
131-20.333
141-01
150-20
220-10
all extra14-120.538
1 to 9696-5250.57


Of course not every team conforms to these averages particularly well. The Seattle Mariners, for example, are in last place in the American League with a .393 win pct. They're a bit better, at .419 in games when they get hit by a pitch, but when they've been plunked in the 2nd inning this year, they're 6-1 for an .857 win pct. On the other hand, if you plunk the Mariners in the 6th inning, they seem to pack up and go home. They're 0-7 when plunked in the 6th. That's the worst record in the league for games with plunks in any particular inning. On the other end of that scale, the Toronto Bluejays are 6-0 when they get hit in the 6th.

Here the listing of how each team does when they're hit in each inning, sorted by overall record in games when they've had at least 1 plunk.










Chicago Cubs
overall record:
88-58 (.603)
in games with an hbp:
29-10 (.744)
inningW-Lwin pct
14-01
22-20.5
31-10.5
45-01
54-10.8
64-10.8
76-40.6
85-10.833
93-10.75
111-01

Houston Astros
overall record:
80-67 (.544)
in games with an hbp:
29-11 (.725)
inningW-Lwin pct
15-01
23-10.75
32-01
44-01
54-10.8
65-30.625
74-20.667
85-10.833
90-40

Tampa Bay Rays
overall record:
88-58 (.603)
in games with an hbp:
31-16 (.660)
inningW-Lwin pct
14-10.8
24-20.667
36-20.75
42-20.5
51-30.25
65-10.833
77-30.7
84-10.8
91-30.25
101-01
130-10

Toronto Blue Jays
overall record:
88-58 (.603)
in games with an hbp:
30-16 (.652)
inningW-Lwin pct
17-30.7
25-30.625
36-20.75
43-30.5
54-30.571
66-01
72-01
80-30
93-01

LA Angels of someplace
overall record:
89-57 (.610)
in games with an hbp:
28-15 (.651)
inningW-Lwin pct
14-01
25-01
35-20.714
45-60.455
53-30.5
64-30.571
71-01
80-10
93-01

Baltimore Orioles
overall record:
65-80 (.448)
in games with an hbp:
22-12 (.647)
inningW-Lwin pct
14-20.667
23-10.75
31-10.5
40-20
52-40.333
62-10.667
74-10.8
85-20.714
94-01

Arizona Diamondbacks
overall record:
71-74 (.490)
in games with an hbp:
21-12 (.636)
inningW-Lwin pct
13-10.75
21-10.5
31-30.25
47-10.875
52-01
63-01
73-20.6
83-10.75
92-50.286
111-01

Minnesota Twins
overall record:
80-66 (.548)
in games with an hbp:
17-10 (.630)
inningW-Lwin pct
12-20.5
21-30.25
35-01
41-01
52-10.667
61-20.333
74-10.8
82-10.667
111-01

New York Yankees
overall record:
77-69 (.527)
in games with an hbp:
34-21 (.618)
inningW-Lwin pct
10-20
26-40.6
35-10.833
44-40.5
54-10.8
611-70.611
75-20.714
84-50.444
91-30.25
121-01

Milwaukee Brewers
overall record:
83-64 (.565)
in games with an hbp:
29-18 (.617)
inningW-Lwin pct
16-20.75
24-40.5
32-01
42-20.5
55-30.625
65-50.5
75-20.714
84-10.8
95-10.833
101-01

Boston Red Sox
overall record:
85-60 (.586)
in games with an hbp:
30-19 (.612)
inningW-Lwin pct
15-10.833
24-30.571
35-20.714
45-30.625
51-60.143
67-30.7
75-10.833
85-10.833
90-20
110-10
120-10

Atlanta Braves
overall record:
65-82 (.442)
in games with an hbp:
21-14 (.600)
inningW-Lwin pct
12-10.667
22-30.4
33-10.75
41-50.167
54-01
65-10.833
73-20.6
82-01
92-20.5

St. Louis Cardinals
overall record:
78-68 (.534)
in games with an hbp:
19-13 (.594)
inningW-Lwin pct
12-01
24-30.571
32-10.667
42-01
53-10.75
62-10.667
74-20.667
84-30.571
90-30
101-01

Colorado Rockies
overall record:
67-80 (.456)
in games with an hbp:
23-16 (.590)
inningW-Lwin pct
13-10.75
23-20.6
34-20.667
41-30.25
54-20.667
64-30.571
75-10.833
84-40.5
91-10.5

LA Dodgers
overall record:
75-71 (.514)
in games with an hbp:
21-15 (.583)
inningW-Lwin pct
12-60.25
20-20
33-01
41-10.5
52-20.5
69-10.9
71-01
82-20.5
92-10.667
111-01

Chicago White Sox
overall record:
81-65 (.555)
in games with an hbp:
30-22 (.577)
inningW-Lwin pct
15-10.833
22-20.5
33-20.6
43-60.333
53-20.6
66-30.667
75-20.714
86-40.6
92-40.333

Cleveland Indians
overall record:
71-74 (.490)
in games with an hbp:
37-28 (.569)
inningW-Lwin pct
14-40.5
26-70.462
36-50.545
43-40.429
59-30.75
62-40.333
79-40.692
86-50.545
91-20.333
111-01

Philadelphia Phillies
overall record:
80-67 (.544)
in games with an hbp:
27-21 (.563)
inningW-Lwin pct
18-50.615
22-20.5
33-20.6
43-20.6
53-20.6
65-40.556
74-40.5
83-20.6
94-30.571

Florida Marlins
overall record:
74-72 (.507)
in games with an hbp:
29-24 (.547)
inningW-Lwin pct
15-30.625
28-60.571
33-20.6
45-20.714
53-10.75
64-30.571
74-30.571
81-40.2
91-30.25
110-10

San Francisco Giants
overall record:
65-81 (.445)
in games with an hbp:
20-17 (.541)
inningW-Lwin pct
11-40.2
24-30.571
32-10.667
41-20.333
52-30.4
66-30.667
70-20
85-20.714
91-10.5
101-01

Oakland A's
overall record:
67-79 (.459)
in games with an hbp:
17-15 (.531)
inningW-Lwin pct
13-40.429
22-01
31-30.25
43-10.75
53-10.75
61-10.5
71-30.25
82-10.667
92-20.5
100-10
121-10.5

Kansas City Royals
overall record:
62-83 (.428)
in games with an hbp:
20-18 (.526)
inningW-Lwin pct
14-10.8
21-30.25
35-20.714
44-01
53-40.429
60-20
70-20
82-20.5
91-30.25
100-10
130-10
150-10

Cincinnatti Reds
overall record:
66-80 (.452)
in games with an hbp:
18-17 (.514)
inningW-Lwin pct
11-50.167
27-40.636
31-10.5
43-01
54-20.667
64-30.571
72-20.5
83-10.75
91-01

San Diego Padres
overall record:
57-90 (.388)
in games with an hbp:
22-22 (.500)
inningW-Lwin pct
14-10.8
25-20.714
32-30.4
42-30.4
51-20.333
61-30.25
71-20.333
83-40.429
92-10.667
120-10
131-01
220-10

New York Mets
overall record:
82-63 (.566)
in games with an hbp:
13-15 (.464)
inningW-Lwin pct
11-10.5
21-40.2
32-01
42-20.5
53-40.429
60-10
73-40.429
81-10.5
91-10.5

Detroit Tigers
overall record:
70-76 (.479)
in games with an hbp:
15-18 (.455)
inningW-Lwin pct
11-30.25
23-20.6
30-40
41-10.5
50-30
65-30.625
70-30
85-10.833
92-01

Washinton Nationals
overall record:
56-90 (.384)
in games with an hbp:
23-29 (.442)
inningW-Lwin pct
15-30.625
23-30.5
32-60.25
44-40.5
54-40.5
62-30.4
73-20.6
81-30.25
92-40.333
101-01
120-10
141-01

Texas Rangers
overall record:
72-75 (.490)
in games with an hbp:
21-27 (.438)
inningW-Lwin pct
11-40.2
25-10.833
31-50.167
44-10.8
54-50.444
63-30.5
74-40.5
84-10.8
91-40.2

Pittsburgh Pirates
overall record:
60-86 (.411)
in games with an hbp:
19-25 (.432)
inningW-Lwin pct
12-60.25
23-01
33-60.333
43-50.375
52-40.333
62-30.4
71-10.5
84-30.571
92-30.4

Seattle Mariners
overall record:
57-88 (.393)
in games with an hbp:
13-18 (.419)
inningW-Lwin pct
10-20
26-10.857
32-01
40-30
52-20.5
60-70
72-20.5
82-01
90-10
150-10

As you can see from that list, the Rangers, Tigers and Mets are the only teams that do worse when they get hit by a pitch. And, if only games in which teams got hit by a pitch counted in the standings (the way it should be), the division leaders would be the Braves, Cubs, and D-backs in the NL and the Rays, Twins, and Angels in the AL. The wild card leaders would be Houston and Toronto.

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